Showing posts with label from THE fringes - a Political Economic Commentary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label from THE fringes - a Political Economic Commentary. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

TIME is RIPE for a 3rd FORCE to EMERGE!!!

POLITICAL ECONOMY - Column: " from THE fringes "
Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre, MALAYSIA
Tuesday, 3rd  November 2015 


3rd Force to EMERGE ?



( WIEF - has it seen better days? )


Over dinner with an ambassador to one of the MENA countries a couple of weeks back the good ambassador stated that whatever the PM's shortcomings were one have to give credit where credit is due - PM Najib is rather impressive on the world stage. Over the 11th WIEF (World Islamic Economic Forum) Gala Dinner I had the opportunity to confirm the ambassador's statement when I was seated in between delegates from South Africa and Iran. Both delegates (especially the one from South Africa) were lavishing praises on PM Najib and comparing him to their respective numero uno back home.



( Dinner Invitation - many were offended by this! )



( MORE to FOLLOW ) 

The only party appearing credible during Malaysia's '100 days of madness' which started in late July is PAS. Despite the usurper's i.e. Parti Amanah sleek and slick membership drive, the Bersih rally proves that PAS can (or cannot) turn out the Malay Muslim numbers. On the flip side of the coin for the often called DAP-proxy called Amanah, its still early days for them as they are just starting to build up the party's machinery.

Based on a stratified random survey of voters aged 40 and above I'd conducted in October, if elections were to be held tomorrow PAS can be the kingmakers in the so-called Malay heartlands. Apparently, the silent majority are just fed up of both sides of the political BN-PH divide.

Its an open secret that the opposition is 'not aggressively'  pursuing PM Najib as they feel that they stand a better chance of winning the elections with Najib leading the BN-coalition. Herein lies the crux of the matter for the everyday Ahmad, Wong and Kumar. The silent majority feels that both political alliances have been 'screwing them' left, right and centre.



Tuesday, October 27, 2015

HISTORY, will be the Judge & Jury.

POLITICAL ECONOMY - Column: " from THE fringes "
Kuala Lumpur, MALAYSIA
Tuesday, 27th  October 2015 



(Post-Budget 2016 'Show'?)

Budget 2016 was tabled last Friday 2016, a week after the former Mufti of FT  passed away.
Having been involved in either covering previous government budgets for a TV station or taking part in the pre-budget discussions leading to the tabling of the budget itself, this year I am not involved in the event or the post-budget show.

Let history be the Judge and Jury for Budget 2016.  

( MORE to FOLLOW )

I'd expected Budget 2016 to be a budget for the Malay heartlands (read 20th October 2015 "from THE fringes" HERE ) and also geared towards Sabah and Sarawak (especially Sarawak due to the impending state elections) and I was proved right.

It so happens that last Friday was hari Asyura i.e. the 10th of Muharram, a day of many significant events. The local mosque I go to organised a break of fast or iftar to commemorate the day. Over the breaking of fast when asked what they thought of Budget 2016, 2 matters were highlighted i.e. the tax increase for those earning RM50,000 a month and the RM250 handed to pensioners.



( This week's column is based on a series of informal discussions held in the F.T. of K.L.(Sri Hartamas & TTDI), Selangor (P.Jaya, Sri Damansara & Bandar Sunway) and Negeri Sembilan.  )

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

WHO Will Blink - SECEDE or, In Defense of PM Najib?

POLITICAL ECONOMY - Column: " from THE fringes "
Federal Territory of  Kuala Lumpur, MALAYSIA
Tuesday, 20th  October 2015 




( An UNVERIFIED Merdeka Centre Survey being circulated on the Social Media )
Note: Confirmation of the Survey veracity is very much appreciated.





( a purported post from the from Southern Tiger@Harimau Selatan fB? )
Note: Confirmation of the fB post is very much appreciated.


( Allahyarham Tan Sri Abdul Kadir Talib - former Mufti of FT passes away, Al-Fatihah )


A really, really, really Unbelievable game of High Stakes Poker is being played in my homeland,
...even better than what was at stake in Casino Royale!

Amongst the chips on the table or power cards played are ...well...to quote the youngest chess master in Malaysia's 58 years of history i.e. CM(Candidate Master) Amir Faiz when he was 6 years old - 
" ...I can't think anymore. If I think my brains will become smaller! "(NAG 2013, UTP-Perak).

On a Friday morning, almost a month back a legal practitioner and I met some VIPs from Sarawak in a KL hotel. The purpose of the meeting is for me to propose an economic initiative which can result in around 20-50 employment opportunities (if not more) to be created in mainly the state capital of Kuching. The jobs which can be created will predominantly be in the finance/securities sector. A spin-off from the initiative can also differentiate Sarawak from the rest of Malaysia during the state government's investment roadshows abroad. In a serious mode sprinkled with dosses of humour we talked about the reason(s) and possibility(ies) of Sarawak seceding and together with Johor, forming a separate nation. Various name combinations were offered and economic sectors and possible co-operations discussed.

Fast forward to October 2015 and who would have thought that the Crown Prince of Johor (fondly referred to as TMJ) would have suggested secession if the terms of the forming of the Federation of Malaysia are not met. There must have been strong reasons for TMJ to highlight the matter publicly. The way the country is being run might be one of them.

Less I be accused of being an agent provocateur - I am writing this for academic discussions and theoretical purposes as well as theoretically speaking, IF and that's a very BIG IF Johore were to leave Malaysia tomorrow, Ministers and Deputy Ministers like Hishamuddin, Azalina, Ahmad Maslan 3.85, Nur Jazlan (ex-PAC Chairman) as well as MCA's T.Y.Chua, J.S.Wee and MIC President Subramaniam will be out of a job automatically.

Economically, perhaps even Iskandar Malaysia(IM) can be reinvigorated. The following is the profile of the nationalities of consumers searching for property to be purchased in Iskandar released by the iProperty Group during its PC yesterday. Notice the absence of Arab nationalities? Perhaps, they are in the 2% unaccounted for?
( Nationalities of Consumers Searching for Property in Iskandar Malaysia "
* source iProperty Group H2 2015 - Consumer Market  Sentiment Survey, 19th October 2015.

Historically, UMNO's track record in preserving Johor have been nothing to shout about. Though Johor is often seen as a Fixed Deposit of sorts for the ruling coalition of BN and its Alliance predecessor, 2 UMNO Presidents had in one way or another 'allowed' Johor lands to be reduced. The Father of 2 Countries allowed it (read from THE fringes 8th September "2 Countries but 1 Father" Column HERE) while later on PM Abdullah Badawi allowed the case of Pulau Batu Puteh to be tried at the ICJ. We all know what happened next - Rais Yatim declaring the ICJ decision as a 'Win-Win' decision for both countries!


( MORE to FOLLOW )

This is the second week in a row that I'd to change what was meant to be published.
Last week I intended to write about how despite the controversies surrounding some overseas purchase or investment made by certain government agencies or GLCs, the weak Ringgit would enable these investments to be pretty much profitable if divestments can be made and the money brought back to resuscitate the local economy. However, the decree by the Malay Rulers on 1MDB put a stop to my arguments.

The title for my column this week should have been simply " In Defense of Najib! ". 
I would then proceed to outline how or what Najib should do to retain BN if not UMNO's failing and falling grip on power in the next GE. However, a threat of secession however remote is a plot that is too tempting to be passed over and needs to be written about especially since my discussions regarding this matter on the 11th of September with the Sarawakians.

My supposed article this week would have started with an analysis of the toll increase.
Though the decision is cursed at by almost all motorists, I take the stand that this is a move that I would have taken myself if I was the PM though it seemed to be a very unpopular move. Reason being is that a majority of tolled road users are not my i.e. BN's supporters as they tend to live in the urban areas. As most are aware the urban voters have not been kind to the BN coalition. With the exception of the parliamentary seats of the F.T.of Putrajaya and Johor Bahru, all other seats are in the hands of the now defunct Pakatan Rakyat.

I might as well use the amount 'saved' from subsidising the toll rates for urban motorists to reward my (BN) supporters which lives in the 'Malay heartlands'. The reward should normally take the form of targeted subsidies for specific demographics. An example is increasing the BR1M payouts or assistance or whatever one wishes to call it. Others will be increasing education opportunities via additional places in boarding schools and universities coupled with easy access to financing the studies like scholarships or PTPTN loans, giving grants and subsidies for the farmers/settlers and fishermen. The normal "frog in a coconut shell" thinking...but then again that's just me. A reason why I am not the PM.



( PC by Dato' Dr. Zulkifli Mohamad - the Mufti of KL
on Friday, 16th October 2015 at the Bukit Kiara Muslim Cemetery around 3.15pm )

In concluding this week's column, I would lkie to pay tribute to the former Mufti of the Federal Territory (1991-1997) and also former Imam Besar of the Putrajaya mosque i.e. Allahyarham Tan Sri Dato' Abdul Kadir Talib who passed away at the age of 86 on the morning of Friday, 16th October 2015 after subuh(dawn) prayers. 

It was my first PC at a Muslim cemetery or any cemetery area for that matter. Many would have notice that the clouds were covering the cemetery area in Bukit Kiara but perhaps many may not have notice that not only were the clouds covering the area but also the fact that in the middle of the clouds there was an opening with a ray of sunlight coming through to lit the area. Immediately after what was a fast burial, the heavens opened up and it started to drizzle just as the remaining attendees were leaving the area. AL - FATIHAH to Allahyarham Tan Sri Dato' Abdul Kadir Talib.



( This week's column is based on amongst others a myriad of  attendances at meetings, events or PCs held in the F.T. of K.L(Bukit Kiara Muslim Cemetery, Mid Valley & TTDI)., Selangor (Ara Damansara, Kelana Jaya and Sri Damansara) and the F.T. of Putrajaya.  )

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

" 3M and The Day of the Tan SRIs - Part 2, THE Leader Emerges "

POLITICAL ECONOMY - Column: " from THE fringes "
Federal Territory of  Kuala Lumpur & Putrajaya, MALAYSIA
Tuesday, 13th  October 2015 



3M Malaysia Makes a Surprise Acquisition



( Based on those seated, what was NOT said were MORE than what was said )


3M  Checks and the Day of the 4 TAN SRIs -Part 2


(A line-up across generations - 90, 70s, 60s & 50s)  

Read HERE, 3 weeks ago I'd written about Malaysia's own 3M political consortium and the fact that they appeared 'listless' by making perpetual checks without achieving any or much results whatsoever. Yesterday, at a press conference in Putrajaya-the Administrative and Political capital of Malaysia, 3M Malaysia makes a 'surprise political acquisition' which instantly reminds me of Machiavelli.

Add in a press conference later in the afternoon around the KLCC area which also discusses the forecast for sukuk issuance for at least the next 6 months and one can derive that though the haze have lifted and API readings have headed down south, the clouds on the horizon still looks bleak with a corresponding temperature increase.

- MORE to FOLLOW -

If at first you don't succeed - try, try and try again.

Part 1 of  "The Day of the Tan Sris" was basically an 'administrative-led initiative' if one could call it such as the Tan Sris were all from the administrative branch of the government. Malaysia's version of Indonesia's 1965 'Day of the Generals' in Lubang  Buaya resulted in amongst others the AG being dropped on Tuesday in a 'backdated' Monday resignation, the Deputy President and Vice-President of UMNO being dropped in a cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday, a fire in the Royal Malaysian Police HQ at Bukit Aman, MACC officers being transferred and then re-transferred back and the IGP being the IGP!.

Then there were the Yellow (BERSIH) and Red gatherings.The people were spooked when DPP Morais went wissing and later on found murdered. Rumours had earlier circulated on the social media that Morais was the person who drafted a fabled 'Charge Sheet' which disappeared together with a disappearing official day. Wrong or right, the death of DPP Morais' and a Malay NGO leader were pereceived to be a tit for tat by the public, an impression which the Police tried to put to rest with their announcements and declared investigations.

Part 2 begun with a statement issued by the Malay Rulers for the investigation into 1MDB to be expedited.
It is made even more intriguing during a press conference in Putrajaya in that what was said were no where as important as what was NOT said during the press conference at Perdana Leadership Foundation. Machiavelli's  " The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend " is proven right again.
Ku Li's presence at the press conference speaks volumes in itself. The 3M consortium had just increased market share with the addition of Ku Li and to a certain albeit limited extent former MCA President Dato' Ong Tee Keat and former Minister and Kedah MB Tan Sri Sanusi Junid.

It will be interesting to see the consequences as a result of Part 2 of "The Day of the Tan Sris - 3M Makes a Surprising Acquisition and THE Leader Emerges ". Will a second 100-days of Madness be unleashed???

As per popular trilogies like Star Wars or Lord of the Rings, expect Part 3 to conclude matters.
A few Tuns have not been seen yet with Tun Mahathir. Depending on circumstance, Part 3 might be "The Day of the Jedi/Darth Tuns".

( This week's column is based on a myriad of  Press Conferences, informal interviews with government and corporate personalities as well as  academic and coffeeshop discussions held in KL(Brickfields, KLCC & TTDI), Melaka, Negeri Sembilan, Selangor (Gombak and Kelana Jaya) and Putrajaya.  )

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Pariah GLCs to "HERO"!!!???

POLITICAL ECONOMY - Column: " from THE fringes "
Taman Tun Dr. Ismail-KL & Gombak-SELANGOR, MALAYSIA
Tuesday, 6th  October 2015 



WORLD PARIAHs to "HERO" ???


( 1MDB, The elephant in the room. )

I had to sort out a parcel supposed to be delivered by Poslaju over a week ago which the intended recipient never received. In a queue at the local Post Office today, an elderly gentleman who claims to have been in the Armed Forces and I engaged in some meaningful discussion on the country's state of affairs while waiting for the doors to be opened for business. After a couple of minutes, the retired armed forces officer volunteered me the following;-

Gentleman:
Its interesting what one can 'pick up' from the local traders.

Me: Yah! Not surprising. I supposed they've been around....to get supplies and such.

Gentleman:
Do you know what 1MDB stands for?

Me: What? (not even bothered to state the official meaning as I knew a punchline was coming.)

Gentlemen:
" 1Melayu Dapat Bilions" (translated - One or a Malay got Billions).

Me: WaQAQA.......in a coughing laugh! 
Uncle C, we must go for teh tarik one of these days.

Jokes aside, GLCs who at one time have been 'whacked' - left, right and centre, ridiculed for buying/investing in overseas assets at hugely inflated prices with a sniff of corruption in the bidding/buying process, blamed for the economic and political turmoil the country is in or accussed of just being headless chicken(s) for not sticking to their initial mandate, might just become Malaysia's saviours.

Such are the vagaries of the manipulative riba-based financial markets, that pariahs might just become 'the prodigal son'. Reason being is the widening band for the Malaysian Ringgit against foreign currencies. A case in point is 1MDB. Others are purchases of foreign assets(properties) by MARA and Tabung Haji.



( Tabung Haji and 1MDB )



(MARA)


(MORE TO FOLLOW)

Gut feelings is one of those matters which cannot be explained scientifically but almost always points to the right direction. I had a "gut-feeling moment" the morning before this article is supposed to be published starting with my encounter with the retired Armed Forces officer the local Post Office.  Lo and behold, my gut feeling turned out to be right.

First, when I was invited to participate in an economics programme at a local public university on the same Tuesday and I was informed that the university had in August issued several warning letters to more than 10 student leaders for highlighting the 1MDB issue even before the issue blew up in our faces.

An issue which led to the "Day of the 4 Tan Sris (ala Indonesia's Day of Generals)
...or 5 or 6 or 7 Tan Sris depending on whose version one might have heard it from!"

An issue which led to the AG being dropped;
 (some speculated a smokescreen was thrown to get official approval),

An issue which led to the DPM and a Senior Minister being dropped in a Cabinet Reshuffle late July;
...never before have the UMNO Deputy and Vice-President been dropped EVEN at the height of the Team A and Team B spat in the late 1980s which led to the emergence of Semangat 46 party,

An issue which led to the Yellow Shirts rally;
...only to be countered by a Red Shirts rally 2 weeks later,

An issue which led to the Ringgit heading south, the worse in 17 years;
despite ratings agencies and the government claiming Malaysia's fundamentals are strong,

An issue which "right or wrong" led to bodies starting to pile up,

An issue which led to the unheard of statement by the Malay Rulers ;-


" Raja-Raja Melayu Mahu Siasatan Berkaitan 1MDB Diselesaikan Secepat Mungkin "

(translated means "The Malay Rulers Wants the Investigation Relating to 1MDB be Completed Soonest Possible" )

Hence, some facts and figures that I had wanted to present to back the article's title will have to take the back-burner for now.

( This week's column is mainly based on personal discussions held in KL, Selangor (Gombak), Pahang, Negeri Sembilan and Melaka. )

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Relived, " HAZY DAYS Ahead - Malaysia Dealing with a TRIPLE WHAMMY! " (An Ironic Part 2)

POLITICAL ECONOMY - Column: " from THE fringes "
F.T of Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya, Selangor, N.Sembilan and parts of Sarawak,
in addition to Johor and Melaka, MALAYSIA
Tuesday, 29th  September 2015 

HAZY DAYS Ahead - TRIPLE WHAMMY! 
- PART 2

READ 15th September 2015 Column HERE

It has been 2 weeks since I wrote the from THE fringes column titled "HAZY DAYS Ahead - Malaysia Dealing with a TRIPLE WHAMMY! ". I find it both eerie and ironic that I can use the same column written 2 weeks ago in its entirety. Nothing changed!

Perhaps or rather it can be said with conviction that things have become worse. The Ringgit continues its journey to the bottom, political leadership leaves much to be desired and the haze just gets worse as evidenced by the closure of schools.

(  Notice issued by Education Ministry on Monday, 28th September 2015
re the Closure of Schools in Johor & Melaka today i.e. Tuesday, 29th September 2015 )


( Notice issued by Education Ministry on Sunday, 27th September 2015
re the Closure of Schools in the F.T.of KL & Putrajaya, Selangor, NS and parts of Sarawak
yesterday i.e. Monday, 28th September )


( Yesterday's ASEAN500 3 Heads "Summary of ASEAN Haze Talks" by Notrumi )


I would like to take this opportunity albeit a bit late to wish all Muslim readers of from THE fringes, 
"a Blessed Eid Adha. May the Sacrifice made by Prophet Ibrahim and Ismail be a beacon for our purification."

( UPDATE to FOLLOW )

( This week's column is based on surveys conducted in KL, Selangor (Thrice in UKM & Bandar Baru -Bangi ), Negeri Sembilan (Nilai & Seremban) and Melaka. Eerily, with just a few updates the "Hazy Days" column published on 15th September 2015 can still be used. )