So, What Next, Mr Najib?

POLITICS by John Dela Sage Southern Peninsular - MALAYSIA Tuesday, 25th August 2015

Note: The ASEAN 500 this week welcomes a Guest Writer in place of Amirul HM. Writer is a practising lawyer in one of Malaysia's southern states. A 'regular irregular' NGO supporter, he used to be the Secretary of a State Bar Association as well as other 'quiet' initiatives like GRI-M and HIKMAH. Not wishing to be thrusted into the limelight, he writes under the moniker John Dela Sage.

So, What Next, Mr Najib?

1. The political situation in Malaysia is becoming increasingly confusing by the day. This is mainly due to the events surrounding UMNO, the backbone and senior partner of BN and its president Mr Najib Razak.

2. The 1MDB saga has become a huge political and financial scandal. While most Malaysians might not be able to fully comprehend the intricacies of this somewhat complex and sophisticated investment fiasco, many will have some concept of the allegations involved.

3. It is submitted that given its sheer magnitude, the 1MDB controversy is unlikely to disappear from the pale of public discussion any time soon and will continue to feature prominently in both the social as well as the mainstream media.

4. One direct consequence that flows from this 1MDB issue is that UMNO has now become a political house divided. It is plain and obvious that there exist deep divisions within the party and political allegiances are now being tested to the core. In point of fact, many of its members are now caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place.  

5. Admittedly, the recent cabinet reshuffle has allowed Mr Najib to consolidate his position as head of the government. Additionally, with the party polls being deferred until the next General Elections [GE], he will also have the option of dropping his former Deputy and other detractors as candidates for the next General Election. Those dropped will find it extremely difficult to defend their party positions at the next party polls let alone challenge Mr Najib for the presidency. In that sense, and provided that BN prevails in the next General Election, Mr Najib’s position as President of UMNO too appears to be unassailable.

6. Be that as it may, any decision to drop prominent party stalwarts will certainly entail serious political repercussions. UMNO could conceivably end up losing a few more seats to the opposition and this will affect BN’s overall performance. A weakened mandate as a result of a diminished majority in Parliament will not augur well for Mr Najib’s leadership.

7. It is pertinent to observe that criticism of Mr Najib is mounting over his handling of the 1MDB issue. There appears to be this perception that his administration has not demonstrated a real sense of urgency in allowing the investigations into this matter to be conducted and concluded in an impartial, timely and efficient manner.

8. The Task Force that was set up to investigate the 1MDB saga too appears to have been rendered ineffectual. The police and the MACC are at odds with one another with the latter alleging unwarranted meddling in its investigative duties.

9. In the meantime, the investigations carried out by the Public Accounts Committee (PACC) have also been suspended pending appointment of new members to replace those who have been co opted into the cabinet following the latest reshuffle.

10. Those turn of events have certainly afforded Mr Najib some respite and much needed breathing space to ponder over his next course of action. In actual fact, he has a range of options at his disposal.

11. One of them would be to revoke UMNO’s earlier decision to postpone the party elections. He can opt to hold it next year as scheduled. Such a move will be viewed as a bold step to seek a fresh mandate to lead the party into the next General Election and to bolster his claim that the majority of members in the party stand full square behind him despite the ongoing political crisis.

12. Certainly he can expect to be challenged for the top position but being the incumbent he will definitely have the upper hand against his would be challenger. Once he succeeds in retaining the presidency, party members including his detractors will have little option but to unite behind their President. The 1MDB issue will then be placed on the back burner as the party gears up for its biggest challenge for political survival in the next General Election.

13. Alternatively, Mr Najib can call for a snap General Election. This is certainly a much riskier option and it is also conceivable that his ruling coalition might even lose in that election. However, such a move will also force UMNO members to close ranks and cease internal squabbling as they need to galvanize their efforts and resources to face the enemies from without.

14. The upcoming Sarawak state elections will provide Mr Najib with some useful indicators as to where the ruling coalition stands in the wider political scheme of things. A divided opposition front which is not at their strongest for the moment the Ringgit slide, as well as an uncertain economic climate are some of the factors that could strangely tip the political scale in his favour.

15. Next it is also conceivable that Mr Najib could use this breather to plan a dignified exit strategy and at the same time put in place a smooth succession plan for UMNO. However such a succession plan will involve a great deal of horse trading and UMNO members may simply refuse to accept such an arrangement. In other word, they will want to have their say on who should be the next President should Mr Najib decides to call it a day.

16. The final option is to sit tight and do nothing. Three years is a long time in politics and one can expect that attitudes and opinions will change with the passage of time. With some luck even the 1MDB saga will become nothing more than a historical footnote in Malaysian politics.

17. In the meantime, Mr Najib can devote and concentrate his efforts in fixing the 1MDB mess, bolstering the economy and crafting his foreign policies, to boost his international standing. All these factors can have an impact on the outcome of the next General Election.

18. Over the years UMNO has become synonymous with the concept of Malay Political Dominance. This theme was controversially revisited by Tan Sri Abdullah Ahmad in a lecture delivered in 1986 at the National University of Singapore (NUS). It is pertinent to note that apart from UMNO no other political party has attempted to portray itself as one which seeks to defend, protect and preserve this pre eminence position of the Malays in Malaysian politics. That was how UMNO has kept itself relevant. Therefore, the idea of a weakened leadership leading the party into what would arguably be the toughest General Election ever will not resonate well with the majority of its members and would generate a great deal of anxiety and apprehension all around.

19. George Orwell, the prominent British novelist once said: . . . . “power worship blurs political judgment because it leads almost unavoidably to the belief that present trends will continue. Whoever is winning at the moment will always seem to be invincible.” In the case of the ruling coalition, such feeling of invincibility will have significantly diminished over the course of the last two General Elections and now replaced with a palpable sense of vulnerability.

20. In the final analysis, Mr Najib’s ultimate decision will certainly have a profound impact on the ruling coalition is political fortunes that will surely will be manifested in the results of the next General Election. The ball is clearly in his court and the spectators are waiting with bated breath to see what he does next.